Chinese researchers: New energy helps achieve carbon neutrality

Increasing the proportion of new energy in the energy consumption structure is an essential part of achieving carbon neutrality, Chinese researchers from the Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development (RIPED) – a comprehensive China National Petroleum Corporation R&D center founded in 1958 – noted in a paper of the Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (BCAS, in Chinese) in 2023, a think tank journal focused on strategic and decision-making research that is supervised and sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS).

The world has been undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, and climate change has sounded alarms for human society. Earth is the only home that humanity has, and addressing its environmental problems is the common responsibility of all nations.

Entailing the attainment of a balance between carbon emission and carbon absorption via methods such as forest carbon sinks and sequestration, artificial transformation, and geological sequestration, plays a significant role in controlling global temperatures and promoting the development of green and low-carbon energy, and carbon neutrality is an important part of it.

Despite the urgency of realizing carbon neutrality, many challenges related to the environment, politics, resources, technology, energy structure, and markets continue to exist.

As of October 2021, 137 countries have made clear commitments to achieving carbon neutrality, though only 18 have implemented strong policies in this area, accounting for merely 13% of the total.

The RIPED report observed that the impact of the continuous increase of CO2 concentrations on marine and terrestrial ecosystems is extremely complex and that many unknown problems will need to be solved.

The rate of new energy growth has exceeded the overall global energy consumption growth rate, but the energy consumption structure is still dominated by fossil fuels, with new energy accounting for just 17%. The researchers also pointed out that the uneven distribution of intermittent new energy sources such as solar and wind energy poses great challenges to the large-scale development of new energy in the paper.

Technological difficulties persist as well. For example, various application scenarios and geological settings can limit the implementation of carbon capture, utilization, and storage/carbon capture and storage (CCUS/CCS) technologies. Energy storage technologies cannot fully meet application requirements in terms of cost, scale, and lifespan. Additionally, high costs, insufficient supporting infrastructure, and complex application conditions can hinder the competitiveness of new energy against fossil fuels.

It is necessary to conserve energy, improve efficiency, use low-carbon fossil fuels, encourage end consumers to use electricity rather than other energy sources when possible, and adopt intelligent energy systems to promote large-scale development of clean energy and achieve carbon neutrality.

As the world’s largest energy consumer, energy producer, and carbon emitter, China possesses a vast yet environmentally unfriendly and insecure energy system. The report notes that the nation possesses large quantities of coal and the resource accounted for 56% of its primary energy consumption in 2021, while oil accounted for 18.5%, natural gas for 8.9%, and new energy for 16.6%.

“China needs to boost energy independence by using clean coal, stabilizing oil usage, increasing natural gas usage, and developing new energy,” the researchers noted in the paper.

A three-step plan designed to enable it to do so has indeed been created.

From 2020 to 2035, China will continue to rely on traditional fossil fuels for the majority of its energy needs to ensure the sufficient supply, while it will also participate in the new energy technology revolution, which will enable it to break bottlenecks associated with new energy development. The country is focused on realizing the goal of energy supply security during this stage.

From 2035 to 2050, China plans to achieve coordinated development between new energy and traditional fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. The main tasks in this stage include adjusting the energy consumption structure, developing hydrogen energy, and striving for energy independence; accelerating the adjustment of primary energy consumption structure to make it more viable; and attaining production independence via a model involving “domestic production + overseas equity.”

From 2050, consumption of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas will be comprehensively reduced. With lower costs and large-scale production, new energy will progressively meet the majority of China’s energy needs. Developing new energy, stabilizing structure, and achieving energy independence are the main tasks that the nation will focus on during this stage.

China’s commitment to new energy development and carbon neutrality will bring positive changes in energy consumption. In 2021, fossil fuels accounted for 83% of the country’s energy and 86% of its energy-related CO₂ emissions. However, by 2060, new energy is expected to supply more than 80% of China’s energy demands; concurrently, annual CO₂ emissions should decrease from 10.5 billion tons to around 2 billion tons, a reduction of more than 80%, according to the paper.

Achieving carbon neutrality globally could improve the condition of our atmosphere and the oceans, help mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change, boost sustainable economic growth, and yield other vital benefits for both present and future generations.